The drought of 2007 may prove to be the worst for our area in many years. Not in recent memory have we begun the season with seemingly adequate soil moisture and then fail to receive at least minimal rainfall to produce average or better yields. There have been wet and dry years that have tested our will, but this year our area has become one of the driest parts of the nation.

The impact of drought is much compounded by the fact that this year we planted more corn than in any year since the mid 1940’s. Corn needs an abundance of water, particularly during the early reproductive period, and high water demand continues until the grain is filled. With exception of a very few fortunate localities, the crop has failed to receive adequate rainfall since planting. Stored winter moisture ran out in most fields weeks ago, and now we look to the sky for relief that somehow continues to elude us.

The really odd thing about this year is that our western neighbors in Texas, where drought is a way of life, are experiencing what southern farmers refer to as a “wet” year.

Until recently, we shared our misery with the southeastern states, but they have received welcomed relief while we continue to swelter. An anomaly of weather in the form of a persistent high pressure area has been sitting over our area, along with northern Alabama, repelling any significant relief from drought. Parts of Mississippi, north Alabama, and southern Tennessee are now classified as an area of “exceptional drought.”

While current thought may blame our drought situation on climate change, our area has experienced severe droughts in the past. U.S. Geological Survey records show drought periods from 1930 to 1934, 1940 to 1944, 1951 to 1957, 1962 to 1971, and 1983 to 1988. However, you don’t have to see the records to know that floods are much more prevalent in our area. When the record is updated, I expect it will show a drought for both 2006 and 2007. At least for the moment, I feel that this year’s drought is the more severe, not only because of the rainfall deficit, but also because of the time of its greatest severity – spring.

An attempt to estimate the impact of this year’s drought would be an exercise in futility since much of the result will be determined by events yet to unfold. Last year’s corn crop proved that most of the varieties we are now using have demonstrated good drought tolerance. Last year’s state average corn yield was reduced by drought; however it was still well above state averages during the 1980’s and early 1990’s. I expect that within the next two weeks we will be able to start evaluating some of the effect, especially in the case of early-planted fields that had completed pollination before the worst of the drought arrived.

I have concerns about fields that were planted from mid-March until the first part of April, since many of these entered pollination with very little soil moisture and essentially no rain. Many of these fields are pollinating now, and as the days go by more and more fields will reach this point while experiencing progressively greater levels of drought stress. It goes without saying that we need rain now in order for these fields to produce normal yields.

There is little doubt that we have already sustained significant yield loss in corn; but for most people the big concern now is the need to reach contract levels. Marketing people sometimes get perplexed when producers are uncomfortable with forward contracting; but when we see this kind of situation facing them their hesitancy is easy to understand. It is very likely that some producers may not be able to deliver all of their contracted corn.

Soybeans have handled the drought reasonably well so far, but as plants begin setting and filling pods the situation will change. As with corn, this is the period of highest water demand; and some fields may soon begin to crash without rain. Soybean acreage is relatively low this year; however for those who depend on the crop for paying bills the situation is just as serious as for corn.

The period of cool nights and moderate days helped corn, but was a tough period for cotton. Increased temperatures have actually improved the conditions for cotton; however this crop too is about to hit an invisible wall called drought.

Cotton plants are now producing squares, and within the next two weeks older fields will begin blooming. When plants begin filling bolls, water demand will increase rapidly, and without rain fields will quickly reach their limits. Unlike corn, cotton will react to drought by reducing and even terminating the production of fruit. Sure, cotton is a drought-tolerant and heat-tolerant crop, but drought can potentially reduce yields to levels reminiscent of the 1940’s and 1950’s. With today’s cost of production, low yields are a very serious matter.

Good rainfall now could salvage much of the corn crop, allow for an almost normal soybean crop, and could even support cotton yields almost as good as in the past three years. Parts of this area actually received temporary relief in the form of a half-inch rain last weekend. I hope that by the time you read this, the drought will be broken and we will have a chance for a decent 2007 crop.